Lebanese Cabinet

Armand Homsi is at it again!
I love that guy, he's a genius.


(click on image for larger view)
Hariri-Aoun meeting chez Mr. Le President, aka Fakhamto!

Basically, Aoun and Hariri meet under the supervision of Baabda Palace Occupant to try and break the wall between them that is supposedly hampering the birth of a new government in Lebanon. Yep, that wall was broken alright!

Yes, supervision: since both politicians (actually all politicians) are acting like children and need to be supervised!
Yes, Occupant: since given his constitutional powers, our beloved President is nothing more than a space filler!

And as for the government, that thing needs a c-section now, no natural birth here!
It is far easier to believe the Immaculate Conception than to believe that this government will see the light anytime soon.

Oh, and whoever tells you that Syria is not behind this severe crippling of the Lebanese political system, is flat out LYING to you.

BG

Politics as a hobby?

Can somebody please explain to me how a Prime Minister-designate tasked with the almost impossible job of forming a Lebanese government decides to take a family vacation to France??

For crying out loud, should he not be trying to form a government as soon as possible that can tackle the multiple issues that are plaguing the Lebanese people, most importantly pressing economic needs and minimum bare standards of living, rather than vacationing with his family?

I don't know about the rest of the Lebanese people, but the official reason and statement issued by his parliamentary block was definitely not making sense to me:

"Hariri wanted to distance himself from the heated rhetoric regarding the cabinet’s formation and the political make-up of the March 14 coalition."

Well, taking a break every once in a while is fine, but the timing could not have been any worse. The need to form a government in Lebanon that will actually try to handle the multiple problems we have is and should be of paramount importance to all politicians, and especially so the politician tasked with putting that government together.

Oh, and if every politician in Lebanon were to take a break and leave to blow some steam every time Walid Jumblat maneuvers or takes a new position, then I think politicians will spend more time outside than inside Lebanon and we'd only be left with Jumblat as the sole politician in Lebanon.

Accountability people!

These guys need to be held accountable. If they were, I don't think Hariri would take the issue of premiership lightly and Jumblat would definitely stick to a position for longer than 24 hrs.

BG

Making the case against Nabih Berri

Now that the parliamentary elections in Lebanon are over and the results have created a majority and a minority, the first order of business for the new parliament when it convenes is to elect a speaker.

Article 44 of the Lebanese Constitution stipulates the conditions of electing a Chamber of Deputies Speaker.

Each time a new Chamber is elected, the Chamber meets under the presidency of the oldest member and the secretariat or the two youngest. It will then elect separately, by a secret ballot and by an absolute majority of the votes cast, the President and the Vice President of the Chamber to hold office for the length or the Chamber's term. At the third ballot, a relative majority is sufficient. Should the votes be equal, the oldest candidate is considered elected.

The oldest member of the newly elected parliament is Abdel Latif El-Zein, elected for the region of Nabatieh, is a Shia Muslim and member of the March 8th coalition. The two youngest members are Nadim Gemayel, a Maronite, and Nayle Tueni, a Greek Orthodox, both members of the March 14th coalition and both elected in Beirut I district (Ashrafieh, Rmeil, Saife). Basically their roles are mostly ceremonial, they go around collecting secret ballots in a box and then count them.

To be elected Speaker, you must be an MP and a Shia Muslim and you must receive 2/3 or the votes of the members present. If a single candidate fails to achieve that majority of votes in the first two rounds of elections, then in the third round a simple majority suffices (1/2 the votes + 1). If two candidates get the same amount of votes then the oldest is automatically considered elected.

As things stand today, MP Nabih Berri and current Speaker is the major candidate for the new Speaker position. MP Okab Sakr, elected for the district of Zahle, has indicated that he is interested in the post of Speaker, it remains to be seen however if his interest is sincere or has any chance of materializing.

Nabih Berri has in his column at the very least the support of the following parliamentary blocs:

Amal movement bloc, 11 members
Hezbollah bloc, 13 members
Syrian Social Nationalist Party bloc, 2 members
Baath Party bloc, 2 members
Progressive Socialist Party bloc, 10 members
Michel El Murr, 1 member
And possibly anywhere between 5-10 members of independents and un-affiliated

This brings his total to 46-51 votes that he has for sure.

I personally don't think Lebanese Forces or Phalange MPs will vote for him. That's 5 MPs each.
Change and Reform bloc (Free Patriotic Movement, Marada, Tashnag and Lebanese Democratic Party) which is around 27 MPs will most likely not vote for him either. Tashnag MPs might, I'm not so sure what their position is at the moment, but I'll keep them in the NO column for now.

If this drags on into a third voting round (where only 1/2 +1 votes is needed) then Berri will win this thing easily, but if he is to win from the first two rounds of voting, he will need the support of other members of parliament or other blocs. We are left with the Future movement possibly tipping the balance here, either in his favor or against him. Although they (and by they I mean Saad El Hariri) have not come out with a decision on this, there are some rumblings going on within the Future movement against the nomination or election of Berri. Most notable of these rumblings is Ahmad Fatfat, who still has a not-so-completely-healed-wound still festering from way back when one of Berri's TV anchor ladies ever so elegantly asked when was Fatfat going to be assassinated, not knowing that her mic was hot (all this in the wake of the Eido assassination).
The support of Saad, with his 30 MPs, plus other groups within March 14th, will easily put Berri over the 86 votes he needs to win this thing. This is assuming that ALL will vote for Berri.

Unless he treads VERY carefully, he might not get the required 86 votes. Change and Reform, LF, and Phalange will make up 37 votes. Assuming all members of parliament attend the session, then 128-37 = 91.

Marwan Hamade from Jumblat's bloc has signaled he is unhappy with Berri. A few members of the Future bloc, who represent Beirut or the Sunni's might have a bone to pick with Amal invading Beirut and such.
Hamade, Fatfat, and a few grumblers could easily add up to 7 thus bringing the number of MPs voting NO or voting for another candidate to 44 or so. 128-44 = 84, less than two thirds required in the first couple rounds. This can easily torpedo his election.

One thing to really watch here is Aoun's response or decision. He knows that his 27 NO votes will not torpedo Berri's nomination, so will he actually pick that bone or not? Especially so that he butted heads with Berri in Jezzine and ended up humiliating him. In addition, he has always avoided answering whether he supported Berri for the post or not when asked by reporters. Also to consider here is the recent Ibrahim Kanaan thing on Berri's TV, Aoun might have a few things to say about that.

I personally am against a Berri re-election. For one, he has been speaker since 1992, I mean GOD, what kind of democracy is that?! Add to that the fact that he is an ex-militia leader, he is still the leader of the same group, but they are not a militia anymore. Now I understand that a lot of politicians in Lebanon have blood on their hands, but you gotta start somewhere, right? Not to mention that his Amal party took to the streets during the invasion of Beirut and contributed to the mini-war leading up to the Doha agreement. Also, his Amal party contributed to the Tent Sit-in in Central Beirut that crippled the downtown economy severely. Also, he was responsible for closing the doors of parliament for over a year to prevent the majority from voting an anti-Syrian to the presidency and to torpedo the International Court investigating the Hariri murder. And as far as I'm concerned, he just screams corruption and cronyism. Majlis el Jannoub anyone??

And on a not so serious note, I think our fashionista LZ, might have a few things to say about his sense of fashion!


BG

Parliament Elections 2009 #4

I just LOVE this cartoon, better known in Lebanon as caricature.

It is Sunday morning here in Amrika and as usual, I'm reading all my newspapers and blogs with the regular morning espresso (minus the habitual cigarette, as I stopped a month ago) and I came across this hilarious cartoon by Armand Homsi from Annahar daily.

So, two Lebanese, presumably husband and wife are sitting down watching TV, most likely the news. TV announces the discovery of 3 cases of swine flu at Beirut's airport. That prompted the guy to say: we were expecting electors, but we got "mrashahin", which in Arabic translates both into people running for elections, or people with the flu. I think it's genius. I love it.

Obviously a play on words there, but also a clear reference to the fact that candidates and parties are flying people in to come vote in the elections (although no evidence has surfaced as of yet implicating anyone, I know, I know, plenty of reports). However, this has actually created a real concern for Lebanese officials. No it's not what you think, they are not worried about corruption and vote buying or vote rigging. They are actually concerned with the possibility that a lot of the voters that will be coming in to vote might actually be exposed to the virus and thus carry the risk of infecting other people in Lebanon, possibly triggering an endemic situation. Especially so since North American countries who have been so far the hardest hit with this virus (US, Canada, Mexico) have huge numbers of Lebanese immigrants.

So, could we possibly be on the verge of a Swine Flu (eh, I mean Mexican Flu) endemic/pandemic situation??

I think not, but remains to be seen.

BG

WOW, April already??!!

It must be April fool's day in Lebanon.

The idea itself is just laughable, laudable, but laughable.


BG

above link:
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=2&article_id=102488

Lebanese Syrian Relations 3

After years and years of not recognizing Lebanon as a sovereign state but finally appointing an ambassador and stalling in terms of sending him to Beirut to actually do his duties, Syria has finally ordered its' ambassador to go to Beirut and start his job.

He crossed the Syrio-Lebanese border yesterday headed towards Beirut.

Timing anyone??

IS there any hidden agenda in the timing?
I personally would like to think not. Sometimes I get the feeling that the Syrians do these kinds of things just to fuel their esoteric fires more and more. Kinda adds to the whole dark enigma state type of thing.

And since this IS the middle east, it follows then that there is a conspiracy theory behind everything. It just remains to be seen what that theory is.

Is he coming to interfere with the elections?
Is he so sure of the results (that they are going to be favorable towards march 8th) that he feels comfortable coming before and not after?
Does he feel that he is going to be right at home with the new parliament that is going to emerge that he feels comfy to come already?
Is the pressure mounting on Syria by the Americans and the Europeans?

And so on and so forth . . .

Of course, the regular normal explanation would be that he was just recently appointed and is just now able to take on the duties of the office to which he was assigned.

But that is too boring, and so not middle east.


BG

Parliament Elections 2009 #2

Reiterating a previous position I've taken on this blog, it is with despair and dismay that I continue to follow the parliamentary elections in Lebanon.

This blog post will touch on the subject of women in Lebanese politics, or more accurately, lack of women in Lebanese politics.
And since it is election season in Lebanon, let's start with the parliament.

Currently there are only 6 women in the parliament, out of a total of 128 MPs.
That is barely 5%, not even.

Strida Geagea
Bahiya Hariri
Gilbertte Zwein
Solange Gemayel
Ghinwa Galoul
Nayla Mouawad

There are actually more men with the first name of Mohammad (9 I believe) than there are women in parliament.

And with elections coming up, only 12 candidates are women, and they are not expected to win. Maybe just a handful, 4-6, might actually make it. Heck, even if they all win, that's still not 10%, far below what it should be!

Along the lines of this post, watch the following Al Jazeera video that talks about the subject.
A ridiculous claim by none other than Paul Salem from the Carnegie Institute attributes this lack of women in Lebanese politics to their "lifestyle" and "occupation with driving nice cars, having good jobs and having a good time" rather than getting busy with politics. To add insult to injury, the reporter in the clip calls him an "expert".

Ya, ok.
Sure thing buddy.
I'll make sure to solicit his opinion next time I need an "expert" to pontificate on the subject.

No woman has ever come close to being nominated prime minister in Lebanon.
As far as I know, we've only had a few female ministers. The most we've ever had in one cabinet was a whopping two!
As far as the presidency is concerned, I can't recall anyone other than Nayla Mouawad expressing concern and intent to become president, and she wasn't even close to being considered a serious candidate by anyone.

We need more women in politics. Lebanon severely lacks behind when it comes to that issue.

BG